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Some time ago, I looked at the risk of violence after the upcoming US presidential election - see here. I updated that based on an article here
which is a revised assessment based on the thuggery shown by people who
have the temerity to claim that they are enforcing the law. They're not, they're exceeding the very limited and precise authority they have, and their use of egregious violence exceeds what is proportional, reasonable, and compliant with US domestic law and international humanitarian law (IHL) - which the USA, despite it's abhorrent arrogance, IS subject to.
However, those people's behaviour has totally changed the situation - as has the unchallenged invasion of a state legislature by armed whites a few months ago. There has been at least one smaller display of weaponry recently by a group of black people, but the overwhelming preponderance of weaponry is on the side of the authorities and the white supremacists.
US history shows - has for centuries - that white supremacists will willingly assault, rape, torture and mutilate, kill, and slaughter - to the point of committing mass atrocities. They have the means and the motive, and POTUS45 losing the election would possibly be enough of trigger for them to take to the streets.
At that point, it is also clear, based on recent events, at least a significant portion of police and US federal armed forces would support their white supremacist-in-chief.
If protestors take to the streets, I am concerned that it is too likely that there would some sort of one sided slaughter akin to that we saw in the early stages of what has become the civil war in Syria.
In that situation (Syria), I understand the rebels got weapons and support from a range of sources: that won't happen in the USA, which brings into play three other major sources of physical power.
Firstly, those police and US federal armed forces who would refuse to break the law by supporting a president unlawfully staying in power by force.
Secondly, the US military, who are not supposed to intervene in internal US political matters - they are also likely to face internal divisions if ordered to support the white supremacists (and no, soldiers do NOT have to obey unlawful orders - they are, in fact, required to disobey orders to commit atrocities or other unlawful orders).
The third (potential) source of physical power is the US National Guard, which can be called out, as I understand it, by US state Governors. A significant number of them have shown signs of decency, and I suspect that if the violence were to devolve into being a "conventional" civil war, it would through use of their National Guard forces.
However, if there are no protests in the streets, there will be nothing for the thugs to shoot at, bash with batons, or kidnap / disappear.
The appalling situation of POTUS45 staying in power after losing an election (if that happened) would have to be resisted, though (and you'll note I have no faith in the US judiciary - especially Barr), but there is another alternative.
Rather than give POTUS45 the confrontation and risk of violence in the streets that he craves, there is the option of learning from other non-violent movements and "being like water" by staying home - that is, something like the "national day of prayer and fasting" that Gandhi organised in India (see here [look for the word hartal], here, here, here, and a dramatisation can be seen here), but for several days or maybe a couple of weeks.
People could possibly say they've got COVID or are waiting for tests, and simply not cooperate with the authorities until #45 is gone.
This could take some time - the People Power revolution in the Philippines that ousted Marcos (see here) took only 4 days, but there was far less social division there than in the USA, and there had been no prior opportunity for the authorities to practice and try out their techniques as has happened in the USA.
On the other hand, the pandemic and the current protests have also given decent people to also practice and develop their organisation and techniques, and that would be needed to keep people going through the two weeks minimum self-quarantine period. People would need aid with food, rent and other bills, and medicines; some truly essential services, such as food, water and wastewater, power, and medical would also need to be kept going.
It MAY be possible to find supportive doctors to provide medical certificates, and over the coming months, whatever can be stockpiled should be.
The biggest challenge would be the self discipline required for people to not go onto the streets - save that for the Internet.
So, the situation is:
- pro-POTUS45 - those police, military, National Guard, "federal agents", and other authorities who are white supremacists, and the armed civilians who are also white supremacists, who will be angrier and far more likely to be violent and more lethally so if troll#45 loses the election (I doubt their anger and disbelief would let them wait for court hearings);
- pro-decency - the vast majority of black and coloured people, anti-racists, those trying to be decent people, and a significant portion of state Governors, National Guard, military, some police, and maybe a minority (based on what has been seen of late) of "federal agents";
- neutral or ineffective - the US "justice" system, which is largely racist.
- pro-POTUS45 - have a majority of firepower;
- pro-decency - have a majority of people, and the only moral credibility.
- try to confront the pro-POTUS45 forces, who are going to be far more likely to use their weapons; or
- give them no targets, let their anger wear itself out and their frustrations turn against each other,
This would also probably go a long way towards getting the pandemic under control - at least among those staying at home: the pro-troll#45 people n the streets, who seem less inclined to believe in the reality of the pandemic or the value of preventive measures may continue to be vulnerable, if it isn't back under control by then (and, sadly, I don't think it will).
There is, of course, the possibility that POTUS45 would do the right thing and leave if he lost the election.
Over to you, USA.
