Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Friday, 13 June 2025

Post No. 3,139 - events in West Asia

Owing in good measure to the incompetence of the current US president (and the absurd nature of his claims - made over many years - to be able to prevent wars is very apparent!!!), Israel has attacked Iran as a result of increasing nuclear tensions between Iran and other nations. 

Initial news reports include: 

  • “What we know about Israel’s attack on Iran”   https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgr0yvrx4qpo   “One civilian and four soldiers were killed in the attacks, the Iranian military said   ...   Iranian Supreme Leader A__ Kh_ m_ n__, in a measured response, said the attacks should not be “exaggerated or downplayed”.   “It is up to the authorities to determine how to convey the power and will of the Iranian people to the Israeli regime”, he said on Sunday, “and to take actions that serve the interests of this nation and country.”   Meanwhile, the IDF said it had hit around 20 targets” [BBC Verify identified damage at two bases] The report also included “A senior administration official said the US had worked with Israel to encourage a “targeted and proportional” response” (I note, however, the current US regime has a recent history of incompetence and blatant lies, so that claim also needs independent verification)      
  • This report - which has an alarmist/clickbaitey title: it is NOT all out war at the moment - suggests civilian targets have been struck (film is included):   “🚨 All HELL BREAKS LOOSE as ALL OUT WAR ERUPTS!!!”   https://youtu.be/kDCCTlzfW1g   This also assesses the impact on the USA       

Despite Iran’s “measured” response, it is almost inevitable that Iran will respond - it HAS to respond to a gross violation of its sovereignty, even if Israel’s claims are verified as true, for the sake of internal cohesion. 

However, when Iran has adopted a measured initial response, the response has been tokenistic and easily defended against. 

Against that, however, is the significance of the nuclear programme to Iran.  

So ... matters are, IMO, fairly delicately balanced. It helps that there wasn't a large loss of Russian lives, as that would quite possibly have taken matters out of the hands of Iran and Israel/the USA. 

If matters escalate in West Asia, it may force the US military to be taken away from its current role of enabling the suppression of dissent in the USA, but the National Guard would remain there. 

 

News reports I came across later include: 

  • “Iran launches drones at Israel after deadly strikes on commanders, Israeli army says”   https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/explosions-heard-in-tehran-as-israel-says-it-has-launched-pre-emptive-strike/73gjnbi84   “Iran has responded to Israel launching airstrikes on several cities and nuclear targets, by launching 100 drones towards Israel, defence forces say”   Iran has now vowed revenge, in marked contrast to its initial response.      “Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear sites and its top military leaders. Iran retaliates with drones”   https://apnews.com/article/iran-explosions-israel-tehran-00234a06e5128a8aceb406b140297299   “It appeared to be the most significant attack Iran has faced since its 1980s war with Iraq   ...   The International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that an Israeli strike hit Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and said it was closely monitoring radiation levels   ...   top military officials and scientists were believed to have been killed   ...   [Iran] warned that “severe punishment” would be directed at Israel”      

The US military is helping to shoot down Iranian missiles.       

 

And later analysis/deeper reports include: 

  • This assessment notes that “The inconvenient truth is that a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities ... may set back the program only temporarily” (which really depends on how savage the attack is - if it leaves a Gaza-esque desert, the impact will be longer lasting, but that would require far more munitions than Israel has ever used or currently has access to ... and that would bring Russia in), and that much of what happens depends on the current US regime and what its unstable, incompetent, and cowardly dictator does;       

 


Possible flaws 

Where I can, I will try to highlight possible flaws / issues you should consider: 

  • there may be flawed logical arguments in the above: to find out more about such flaws and thinking generally, I recommend Brendan  Myers’ free online course “Clear and Present Thinking”;  
  • I could be wrong - so keep your thinking caps on, and make up your own minds for yourself.

 

If you appreciated this post, please consider promoting it - there are some links below, and there’s also other options. 

Note that I am cutting back on aspects of my posts - see here. 

(Gnwmythr is pronounced new-MYTH-ear)  

Remember: we generally need to be more human being rather than human doing, to mind our MÓ•gan, and to acknowledge that all misgendering is an act of active transphobia/transmisia that puts trans+ lives at risk & accept that all insistence on the use of “trans” as a descriptor comes with commensurate use of “cis” as a descriptor to prevent “othering” (just as binary gendered [men’s and women’s] sporting teams are either both given the gender descriptor, or neither).

#PsychicABetterWorld   and   may all that I do be of value and actively BPM used for and by the nonphysical  BPM  because   #KindnessIsThePoint   

Copyright © Kayleen White 2007-2025     NO AI   I do not consent to any machine learning aka Artificial Intelligence (AI), generative AI, large language model, machine learning, chatbot, or other automated analysis, generative process, or replication program to reproduce, mimic, remix, summarise, or otherwise  replicate any part of this post or other posts on this blog via any means. Typo’s may be inserrted deliberately to demonstrate this is not an AI product.     Otherwise, fair and reasonable use is accepted under Creative Commons 4.0 on an Attribution-ShareAlike basis https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/  




 

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Wednesday, 12 March 2025

Post No. 3,055 - Some thoughts on Ukraine

In an ideal world, Ukraine would have been able to quickly, easily, and comprehensively defeat and push back the Russian forces which illegally invaded three years ago, and all despots everywhere would have taken note and shelved any plans they may have had for wars. 

We don't live in that world. 

So, more realistically, Ukraine has had to fight tooth and nail, losing people and places, its population and national sovereignty put under an extreme level of strain - and, with US and some European assistance, it held Russian forces back, and was causing damage inside Russia - to the extent that some people predicted a Russian economic collapse next year, or possibly later this year. 

And it should be noted that, under Biden, the USA did not provide assistance that would enable Ukraine to win, only to defend itself into a stalemate - which may have been done out of fear of Russia responding by widening the conflict, possibly into a world war, possibly with nuclear weapons (Putin has the habit of doing as he said he would, and he has made statements about using battlefield nuclear weapons to prevent a loss).

But then everything changed again, with a new regime ruling the USA and changing everything ... including abandoning caring for standing up for principles, abandoning caring for Ukraine, and abandoning caring for what had been the core of the USA. 

Support became purely transactional - and Europe’s inaction and lazy reliance on the USA (which is a fault my nation also has) for many decades meant there was no quick alternative. 

On top of that, the USA’s current president then effectively bullied and threatened Ukraine and that nation’s heroic President  Volodymyr  Zelens’kyi towards accepting a ceasefire that was dictated by the USA and possibly Russia. 

And now it has been reported that Ukraine has accepted - I'll provide some news links on that below. 

That does not mean a ceasefire will happen - Putin will have to accept as well, and that will depend on how confident he is feeling, including his confidence about possibly manipulating the USA’s current president. It will also be necessary that no-one breaks the ceasefire ...

It also does not mean a peace will occur - and certainly whatever does occur will be rewarding the thuggishness of Putin and will thereby encourage other despots. 

The world will likely wind up paying a heavy price elsewhere ... but it will be the rest of the world paying it. 

President Zelens’kyi has been to the funerals, the hospitals, the destroyed and damaged places; he knows what has been done and is being done to his people and their lands - including crimes against humanity; he knows the price Ukraine would pay, under the current circumstances, of trying to keep fighting. 

I consider that his decision to accept the ceasefire is not solely nor even primarily a result of being bullied by the thugs currently in the US white house, nor even of exhaustion: it is a decision that shows the deep and abiding love he has for his people and his land. 

I hope all respect that - and then continue on doing everything they have neglected doing out of lazy reliance on the USA, as another war or wars is now inevitable elsewhere - maybe against Poland or one of the Baltic nations (Putin may claim the need for a land bridge to Kaliningrad, just as he claimed the need for a land bridge to the invaded and occupied Crimea as a justification in 2014), maybe on the Korean Peninsula, maybe against Taiwan or on the northern Indian border ... or maybe several or all of those and others all at the same time.

If a ceasefire or peace does occur, I hope no-one is stupid enough to celebrate it: it has no honour, and is a reprieve for Ukraine, but little else.


Those links are (and I will likely add more to this): 

  • “What leverage does [the USA’s president] have over Putin in Ukraine negotiations?”   https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/12/how-much-leverage-has-[the-USA’s-president]-with-putin-believing-he-has-won   “The Russian president remains unwavering in his demands, making wider sanctions and tariffs ineffective   ...   All of which leaves one meaningful lever: increasing US military support to Ukraine.   It will be lost on no one, however – particularly after the temporary suspension of such aid to Kyiv – that this is likely to be [the USA’s president]’s least favoured approach.”      




Possible flaws 

Where I can, I will try to highlight possible flaws / issues you should consider: 

  • there may be flawed logical arguments in the above: to find out more about such flaws and thinking generally, I recommend Brendan  Myers’ free online course “Clear and Present Thinking”;  
  • I could be wrong - so keep your thinking caps on, and make up your own minds for yourself.

 

If you appreciated this post, please consider promoting it - there are some links below, and there’s also other options. 

Note that I am cutting back on aspects of my posts - see here. 

(Gnwmythr is pronounced new-MYTH-ear)  

Remember: we generally need to be more human being rather than human doing, to mind our MÓ•gan, and to acknowledge that all misgendering is an act of active transphobia/transmisia that puts trans+ lives at risk & accept that all insistence on the use of “trans” as a descriptor comes with commensurate use of “cis” as a descriptor to prevent “othering” (just as binary gendered [men’s and women’s] sporting teams are either both given the gender descriptor, or neither).

#PsychicABetterWorld   and   may all that I do be of value and actively BPM used for and by the nonphysical  BPM  

Copyright © Kayleen White 2007-2025     NO AI   I do not consent to any machine learning aka Artificial Intelligence (AI), generative AI, large language model, machine learning, chatbot, or other automated analysis, generative process, or replication program to reproduce, mimic, remix, summarise, or otherwise  replicate any part of this post or other posts on this blog via any means. Typo’s may be inserrted deliberately to demonstrate this is not an AI product.     Otherwise, fair and reasonable use is accepted under Creative Commons 4.0 on an Attribution-ShareAlike basis https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/  




 

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