Post No. 2,957 - The fall of the Assad regime

As a UN report was released detailing “systematic torture and abuse across over 100 Government detention facilities”, an opposition  campaign was launched in north west Syria, displacing 280,000 people, and seeing the opposition militants seize the city of Aleppo, signalling a threat to Russia’s global reputation and local influence, and other cities also being seized culminating in the seizure of Damascus - resulting in Bashar al-Assad  fleeing, the Assad regime falling, and celebrations on the streets of Damascus. 

This will change West Asia dramatically - how depends on what the new regime is like and what Iran does or doesn’t do, and the experts are floundering on this a little, it seems to me.

It reminds me of the fall of Saigon and thus South Việt Nam in 1975, and it is all due to the combination of Putin invading Ukraine in 2022, H___s  committing  mass  atrocities  in Israel in 2023, and opposition military leaders in Syria in 2024 paying attention ... 

The Assad regime was undoubtedly despotic and appallingly abusive.  The end of such a regime should be something good ... unless it is succeeded by something worse, as happened in South Việt Nam in 1975 and Iran in 1979, or something so inept it allows devastating problems to occur, as happened in Iraq in 2003. 

So ... with regard to life inside Syria, it depends on what comes next. 

In terms of regional influences, I suspect these events will help peace in Lebanon by further weakening support for H_______h, harm the cause of an autonomous Kurdistan, and make Iran more desperate and unpredictable. 

Türkiye's influence will likely grow, but I have no initial opinions about the Gulf states - especially Yemen, other than that, as the main external sponsor of extremists there seems to be Iran, probably not much in the short term.

In the long term, it will depend who comes out better off inside Iran - the new reformist influences, or the older factions. 

In terms of the work of this blog, this is a vitally important time inside Syria, and we should be doing everything we can to promote a Balanced Positive and spiritually Mature outcome both there, and inside Iran.

PS - subsequent news reports include: 

• “Assad is granted asylum in Russia as rebels seize control of the Syrian capital”   https://www.npr.org/2024/12/07/g-s1-37354/syrian-government-appears-to-have-fallen-in-stunning-end-to-long-rule-of-assad-family       “Al__s Br_ unn_r, the n_ z_ war criminal at home in Assad's Syria”   https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241212-alois-brunner-the-nazi-war-criminal-at-home-in-assad-s-syria   “The ... al-Assad[s] ... managed to stay in power for five decades by exercising brutally repressive methods inspired in part by Al__s Br_ unn_r, a notorious n_ z_ war criminal”     
  

• “Bashar al-Assad’s regime has fallen in Syria. How will this impact an already fractured region?”   https://theconversation.com/bashar-al-assads-regime-has-fallen-in-syria-how-will-this-impact-an-already-fractured-region-245539      and      “Assad’s murderous regime has been toppled – but what will fill the vacuum in Syria? | Simon Tisdall | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/08/bashar-al-assad-syria-middle-east      and      “End of Assad rule will reshape region's balance of power”   https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8j99447gj1o      and   “Syrians Are Celebrating Fall of Assad, Even as “the Bigger Picture Is Grim”: Scholar Bassam Haddad”   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/9/bassam_haddad_syria_assad_government_collapse      “Syria faces huge humanitarian challenges as it begins post-Assad era”   https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2024/12/09/syria-faces-huge-humanitarian-challenges-it-begins-post-assad-era     
  

• “Fall of Damascus sidelines Russia and brings Turkey [sic] to the fore | Syria | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/syria-fall-of-damascus-sidelines-russia-and-brings-turkey-to-the-fore      “Russia scrambling to keep hold of key Syria bases as Putin faces loss of gateway to Africa”   https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/12/09/russia-wants-to-keep-hold-of-key-syria-bases/   “Russian leader determined to retain prized military posts such as Khmeimim and Tartus, from which warplanes and warships have been evacuated”      “The role of Turkey in the toppling of Syria’s Assad by Islamist rebels”   https://www.france24.com/en/video/20241208-syria-there-is-going-to-be-a-bureaucratic-effort-in-washington-to-contain-trump-and-protect-the-kurds      

• “Iran in a ‘position of unprecedented weakness’ after the fall of Assad in Syria”   https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241209-iran-position-unprecedented-weakness-after-fall-of-assad-syria-proxies-hezbollah-middle-east      

• “The Guardian view on the fall of Assad: a tumultuous, fragile hope in Syria | Editorial | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/08/the-guardian-view-on-the-fall-of-assad-a-tumultuous-fragile-hope-in-syria      

• “Syria’s rebels had strengths, but it was his regime’s weakness that undid Assad | Syria | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/syria-rebels-had-strengths-but-it-was-his-regimes-weakness-that-undid-assad   This has some particularly useful information      “Why the Assad regime collapsed in Syria – and why so fast”   https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241208-why-the-assad-regime-collapsed-in-syria-and-why-so-fast     
  

• “H_______h’s war with Israel left the Assad regime fatally exposed | Syria | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/h_______h-war-with-israel-left-the-assad-regime-syria-fatally-exposed     
  

• “‘A number not a name’: In Syria, freed prisoners recall horrors of the past”   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/in-aleppo-freed-prisoners-recall-the-horrors-of-the-past      and   “Tears of joy and sadness as ‘disappeared’ Syrians emerge from Assad’s prisons | Syria | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/08/tears-of-joy-and-sadness-as-disappeared-syrians-emerge-from-assads-prisons   The prisoners being released include some from the previous Assad’s time, as well as children ...      ““Assad Is Gone”: Writer Yassin al-Haj Saleh on Syria, His 16 Years in Prison & Wife’s Disappearance”   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/9/syria_yassin_al_haj_saleh      ““Remarkable Moment”: After Fleeing Syria, “For Sama” Director Waad Al-Kateab Celebrates End of Assad”   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/9/waad_al_kateab_syria_government_overthrow     
  

• “Joyous celebrations across Syria after al-Assad's fall”   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2024/12/8/joyous-celebrations-across-syria-after-al-assads-fall      and      “World reacts to Bashar al-Assad’s fall, capture of Syria’s Damascus”   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/world-reacts-to-bashar-al-assads-fall-capture-of-damascus   “Opposition fighters’ lightning advance into the capital marks a historic turning point for the country”      

• “Ex-Syrian PM to supervise state bodies until transition, al-Julani says”   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/ex-syrian-pm-to-supervise-state-bodies-until-transition-al-julani-says   “Bashar al-Assad-appointed Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali says gov’t ready to ‘extend its hand’ to opposition, turn its functions over to a transitional government”       “Syrian rebels name new PM as outside powers move to shore up interests | Syria | The Guardian”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/syrian-rebels-name-new-pm-as-outside-powers-move-to-shore-up-interests      “Syria's interim leader takes charge as Israel steps up airstrikes and Damascus reopens”   https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/syrias-interim-leader-takes-charge-as-israel-steps-up-airstrikes-and-damascus-reopens/wunsibsv5      “Syrian leader offers reward for details of Assad officials involved in war crimes”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/syria-fall-of-assad-regime-justice-atrocities-war-crimes-icc     
  

• “Forging Peace in Syria: Great opportunities, grave risks”   https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/12/1158021     ““Politics Is Finally Possible”: After Surprise Fall of Assad in Protracted Civil War, What’s Next?”   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/10/syria_assad      “Priorities after Assad’s Fall”   https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/east-mediterranean-mena/syria/priorities-after-assads-fall   &   “After Fall of Assad, “Struggle from Below” Needed to Build a Free & Democratic Syria”   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/12/syria_joseph_daher      “Syria’s Interim Leader Calls for Return of Millions of Refugees”   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/11/headlines/syrias_interim_leader_calls_for_return_of_millions_of_refugees   but   “Uprooted Syrians mulling return mustn’t be pushed, says UNHCR”   https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/12/1158011       

• “Syrian rebels seize vast haul of banned drug _, country’s largest export”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/13/syrian-rebels-captagon-drug-haul-exports-fenethylline   “Drug dwarfed all legal exports put together, with Assad’s brother widely believed to be power behind lucrative trade”      

• “Taking Syria: The opposition’s battles shown in 11 maps for 11 days”   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/taking-syria-the-oppositions-battles-shown-in-11-maps-for-11-days      “Bashar al-Assad Ousted as Syrian Leader Following 12-Day Offensive”   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/9/headlines/bashar_al_assad_ousted_as_syrian_leader_following_12_day_offensive      and   “Syrian rebels reveal year-long plot that brought down Assad regime”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/13/syrian-rebels-reveal-year-long-plot-that-brought-down-assad-regime   “Exclusive: _ group coordinated rebels to create a unified war effort that included a specialist drone unit”     
  

but also 

• “The de facto authority in Syria is a designated t_rr_r_st group: What happens now?”   https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/12/1158126   Sanctions still apply, but there are exceptions for humanitarian aid and negotiations      

• “Preparing for potential ‘chaos’ in post-Assad Syria, Israel goes on the offensive”   https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241211-preparing-for-potential-chaos-in-post-assad-syria-israel-goes-on-the-offensive      “Israel grabs land in Syria’s Golan Heights, warns villagers to stay home”   https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/8/israel-seizes-buffer-zone-in-syrias-golan-heights-after-al-assad-falls      “Benjamin Netanyahu says Golan Heights will remain part of Israel ‘for eternity’”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/09/israel-seizes-syrian-buffer-zone-amid-airstrikes-on-regime-weapons-depots     
  

• “Israel & U.S. Bomb Syria as Questions Swirl over Future of Post-Assad Syria”   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/9/headlines/israel_us_bomb_syria_as_questions_swirl_over_future_of_post_assad_syria      “More than 100 Israeli air raids on Syrian military sites, monitor says”   https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20241209-live-un-security-council-to-meet-on-syria-in-aftermath-of-bashar-al-assad-fleeing      “Suspected Israeli strikes hit Syrian capital Damascus”   https://www.france24.com/en/video/20241208-suspected-israeli-strikes-hit-a-part-of-damascus      “Israel Declares “Sterile Zone” in Syria Amid Massive Bombing Campaign”   https://www.democracynow.org/2024/12/11/headlines/israel_declares_sterile_zone_in_syria_amid_massive_bombing_campaign     
  

• “Fear of factional fighting drives 100,000 Syrians to northern Kurdish areas”   https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/12/fear-of-factional-fighting-drives-100000-syrians-to-northern-kurdish-areas   “Rival forces backed by US and Turkey seek to secure territory after Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham toppled regime”     
  

Possible flaws 

Where I can, I will try to highlight possible flaws / issues you should consider:

• there may be flawed logical arguments in the above: to find out more about such flaws and thinking generally, I recommend Brendan  Myers’ free online course “Clear and Present Thinking”;  
• I could be wrong - so keep your thinking caps on, and make up your own minds for yourself.
  

 

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#PsychicABetterWorld   and   

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