My decades of life experience have taught me that political announcements that something “will” be done is NOT a guarantee that it will be so.
That applies to political policies, with one past Australian Prime Minister trying to justify what many saw as duplicity by splitting pre-election promises into “core” and NOT core promises, and also announcements of peace or major breakthroughs in international politics - especially with regard to North Korea, and West Asia, especially peace.
The announcement by independent arbiters that a ceasefire has been agreed in Gaza is extremely promising news - more so than any of the overly optimistic reports over the past fifteen months or so that I have generally downplayed or ignored, BUT:
- this is still subject to being agreed by an Israeli cabinet meeting, so it is NOT yet definite;
- a significant number of reports reports mention there are still some details to still sort out, which concerns me greatly, as it is usually these that can be used as a pretext by those who don’t want a ceasefire to sabotage it - and that comment is NOT based on the last fifteen months in Gaza, it is based on more than half a century of following international news, often in places the mainstream media doesn’t cover;
- the ceasefire has to be implemented, which will be done in stages - this is not an instant rearrangement of everyone in the area, and the time issue is going to be particularly crucial for hostages;
- there are ongoing humanitarian needs in Gaza, there will be rebuilding needs in Gaza, and there are ongoing issues elsewhere in West Asia, including the Occupied Palestinian Territories; and
- there will be consequences for all from the trauma caused, including intergenerational trauma, the profound trauma experienced by children, and the legacy of hate that has been created by both sides.
Also, as happened recently in Lebanon, ceasefires are often broken by hot headed/undisciplined/unprofessional groups/individuals, as ensuring the ceasefire holds in the face of provocations/breaches can be challenging.
Having made those points, following are some news links, and I also wish to make it clear that I will seeking to address those points in the work of this blog that I will apply to the situation:
- “‘A stern message’: how return of Trump loomed over Gaza ceasefire negotiations” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/15/a-stern-message-how-return-of-trump-loomed-over-gaza-ceasefire-negotiations “US president-elect demanded a deal – while success against Iran and Hezbollah gave Israeli PM room to make one ... “Netanyahu … suddenly came to recognise precisely where it is that they stand with the new American president. They came to realise that Trump speaks at dictation pace, and they will never be able to outflank him from the right.” ... Over the weekend, and into this week, the incumbent US president, Joe Biden, his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, and senior figures from Egypt, Turkey and the Gulf – all mediators in the long-running negotiations – were working to put pressure on Israel and H___s to bring the talks to a conclusion. ... Issues that had been sticking points for months, not least for Netanyahu, who had earlier in the year retreated from a deal he himself had promoted, suddenly were up for negotiation.” and “Biden has paved the way for Trump’s egregious flouting of international rules” https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/15/biden-trump-israel-foreign-policy “The Biden administration has repeatedly undermined international institutions and law to shield Israel. This will come back to haunt them”
- “A ceasefire deal is here. For Gaza, the Middle East and the world, the future remains unknown” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/16/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire “There may be no winners in war, but history suggests combatants are often eager to convince the world otherwise. The ending of the 15-month conflict in Gaza may prove an exception. The sacrifice has been so great, the misery so complete, and the ultimate future for Gaza so uncertain that few can claim with certainty that this was all worthwhile, or likely to benefit Israel’s security in the long term. The damage to Israel’s reputation may last decades.”
... and, as Foreign Minister Wong urges Dutton and Bandt to tone down their language, Netanyahu delays a cabinet meeting until H___s confirm they are not going to try to wrangle extra concessions ...
More, subsequent news reports:
- “Gaza deal should benefit Netanyahu in short term, but he is critically exposed” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/16/netanyahu-theatrics-loyalties-pressure-ceasefire-deal “Israeli PM must appease his coalition to avoid fresh elections, as well as reckoning with unpredictable Tr_ mp ... The deal, as many in the Israeli media have not been slow to point out, is essentially identical to the agreement that Netanyahu torpedoed over the [northern hemisphere] summer, leaving more Israeli hostages and soldiers to die in the intervening months.”
And, as outlined here, now there is a reasonable chance of the ceasefire being agreed to by Israel.
Possible flaws
Where I can, I will try to highlight possible flaws / issues you should consider:
- there may be flawed logical arguments in the above: to find out more about such flaws and thinking generally, I recommend Brendan
Myers’ free online course “Clear and Present Thinking”;
- I could be wrong - so keep your thinking caps on, and make up your own minds for yourself.
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Note that I am cutting back on aspects of my posts - see here.
(Gnwmythr is pronounced new-MYTH-ear)
Remember: we generally need to be more human being rather than human doing, to mind our Mӕgan, and to acknowledge that all misgendering is an act of active transphobia/transmisia that puts trans+ lives at risk
& accept that all insistence on the use of “trans” as a descriptor
comes with commensurate use of “cis” as a descriptor to prevent “othering” (just as binary gendered [men’s and women’s] sporting teams are either both given the gender descriptor, or neither).
#PsychicABetterWorld and candles for Viva La Résistance à Tr_ mp! and may all that I do be of value and actively BPM used for and by the nonphysical BPM
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