In my opinion, it does a considerable disservice to reality and the cause of making reality better to exaggerate, and that is, IMO, what is happening when people claim we’re in World War III now because of the conflict that is largely in West Asia.
World War One became a world war not because nations from all around the world were involved, but because the conflict was active across much of the globe - lots of fighting in Africa, East Asia (Japan captured a port and wanted to keep - not doing so was one the contributing factors towards WW2 later), the Pacific (my nation, Australia, took over the German colony of New Guinea), and conflicts in many oceans.
There is an argument that the Seven Years War between England and France was a true world war, possibly the first.
The Boxer Uprising in China wound up involving nations from around the world, but the fighting was confined to China, and thus it is not described as a world war.
In the case of the US and Israeli war against Iran, the fighting is largely in West Asia, which makes it a MAJOR regional war.
The only incidents of violence outside that region are the US sinking of an Iranian naval ship and possibly a mass shooting in the USA (at a bar in Texas).
The effects of the fighting in West Asia will be felt globally (especially if the Straits of Hormuz remain functionally closed), just as happened with Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine four years ago (which has, at times, threatened to become global with both sides being active in Africa, but still is largely a European war), and the Israeli response to the mass atrocity committed by H___s and others in October 2023.
The war in West Asia could become global, and possible mechanisms for that include:
- t_rr_r_st attacks by Iranian agents/those aligned with that regime (which has a history of doing so - including here, last year, with antisemitic violence);
- a violent Russian response to US attacks outside West Asia - but Russia's resources have been stretched to breaking point by its invasion of Ukraine, and I consider the likelihood of large military action low ... if they get involved, it may be to aid Iran with drone warfare.
And, against escalation, China is an energy hungry world power with strong influence in Russia and some influence in Iran, and will be harmed if the Straits of Hormuz remain functionally closed, and thus may act to constrain the spread of the war outside the region - and on the Straits.
However, I consider it likely the war within West Asia will remain active and violent for longer than anyone (especially the US regime) expected, and that will have global economic impacts (i.e., suffering).
It is also important to remember the other existing wars and conflict/unsettled conditions, such as in Libya and the Horn of Africa, and especially in Sudan and the eastern DRC, and that are developing between Pakistan and Afghanistan (see here) or may resume in places such as South Sudan.
Any attempt to subsume those into an alleged World War III would result in the causes and issues of those conflicts being lost, and thus efforts to ameliorate or stop what is happening there would be undone and lost.
Possible flaws
Where I can, I will try to highlight possible flaws / issues you should consider:
- there may be flawed logical arguments in the above: to find out more about such flaws and thinking generally, I recommend Brendan Myers’ free online course “Clear and Present Thinking”;
- I could be wrong - so keep your thinking caps on, and make up your own minds for yourself.
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