This is from this week’s coming news post:
an assessment of Iran’s nuclear programme; an assessment of the limitations of bunker buster bombs, including the likely defences, as questions continue to be raised about the USA’s addled-autocrat-in-charge’s unfounded claims of destruction ... and intelligence confirms that the attack was largely ineffective;
There are likely to be economic consequences from the USA’s attack on Iranian facilities - especially any closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has threatened to use alleged sleeper cells. With regard to the Strait of Hormuz, an actual shipping expert (who I have been following for some years now) makes some good points - although verging into racism at times: Iran needs the Strait of Hormuz to export its own oil and Israel has stayed away from Iran’s oil facilities (if that changes, so too does the war), Iran’s capability to do anything is limited - especially compared to what happened in the 1990s and noting the difficulty of sinking modern commercial shipping (sea mines are the most significant risk, but minesweepers and other military forces are nearby - I would like to have heard commentary on the risks of torpedo boats and/or military-grade [which the H____i do NOT have] marine drones, though), war risk insurance is nowhere near what it was in the 1990s, and the shipping movements are within normal "taxi-style" (i.e., change course and go to wherever cargo is available) patterns for oil tankers, as opposed to the railway timetable like movements of container ships. Iran has retaliated by an attack against a US military base in the region - but this was similar to one other previous such attack, with plenty of forewarning and a conduct that enabled effective defence, meaning it was for domestic purposes more than any genuine attempt to do harm (which also suggests US sleeper cells may not actually be used - if they exist). Commentary includes this, which verges into jingoism and completely fails to address the issue of both sides’ attacks on civilians (see, for instance, this), but gives what seems a reasonable description of what Iran did. Subsequently, the USA’s autocrat-in-charge’s invented non-existent and not observed ceasefire may have inflamed attitudes and made more attacks likely ... but later Israel and Iran MIGHT have decided to accept it - after its claimed creation;
Possible flaws
Where I can, I will try to highlight possible flaws / issues you should consider:
- there may be flawed logical arguments in the above: to find out more about such flaws and thinking generally, I recommend Brendan Myers’ free online course “Clear and Present Thinking”;
- I could be wrong - so keep your thinking caps on, and make up your own minds for yourself.
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Note that I am cutting back on aspects of my posts - see here.
(Gnwmythr is pronounced new-MYTH-ear)
Remember: we generally need to be more human being rather than human doing, to mind our Mӕgan, and to acknowledge that all misgendering is an act of active transphobia/transmisia that puts trans+ lives at risk & accept that all insistence on the use of “trans” as a descriptor comes with commensurate use of “cis” as a descriptor to prevent “othering” (just as binary gendered [men’s and women’s] sporting teams are either both given the gender descriptor, or neither).#PsychicABetterWorld and may all that I do be of value and actively BPM used for and by the nonphysical BPM because #KindnessIsThePoint
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